The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is set to announce its first monetary policy for the current fiscal year today (Monday).

Analysts suggest that, in light of recent economic data, the central bank may cut the interest rate by up to 1 per cent.

Following the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed is scheduled to hold a press conference to unveil the policy.

A recent survey indicates that 80 per cent of people expect a reduction in the policy rate.

Of these, 56.4 per cent anticipate a 0.5 per cent cut, while 15.4 per cent foresee a full 1 per cent reduction.

Five per cent of respondents expect a 25-basis-point cut, and 3 per cent predict a 75-basis-point reduction.

Meanwhile, 20 per cent believe the policy rate will remain unchanged at its current level of 10.5 per cent.

Previously, on December 15, 2025, the State Bank had lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 10.5 per cent.