The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the allocation of reserved seats to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has dramatically altered the political landscape in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), putting Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur’s government at risk.

With 25 reserved seats now left vacant in the KP Assembly, the number game has shifted. The opposition, which includes five allied parties with 27 members, could now expand its strength to 53, significantly narrowing the gap with the ruling alliance.

Currently, the Gandapur-led government commands the support of 93 members, of whom 58 belong to PTI. However, following the Supreme Court ruling, these 58 members are now classified as independents, which may impact their legal standing and political leverage.

The role of 35 independent MPAs in the assembly has become more critical than ever, as they now hold the balance of power in an increasingly volatile house.

The opposition alliance may potentially reach 88 seats if it successfully consolidates support, just five short of the total house strength. With a simple majority requiring 73 votes, the path to a no-confidence motion or government change is now more viable for the opposition.

Notably, since the PTI-backed members are legally considered independents, any defection or floor-crossing from their side would not trigger Article 63(A) of the Constitution, which deals with disqualification on grounds of defection, further complicating matters for the sitting government.

This shifting political dynamic signals an uncertain future for the KP government, with the possibility of a major realignment in the provincial assembly looming.