Solar module prices are expected to see a significant increase within the next six months, according to the head of Solar Supply Chain Research at Wood Mackenzie, Yana Hryshko.

Hryshko noted that the Chinese solar manufacturing industry is likely to drive the upward trend, potentially resulting in the removal of up to 300GW of wafer, cell, and module capacity from non-Tier 1 manufacturers. The shift could help rebalance the market and address the growing disparity between supply and demand.

She emphasised that the “wave of insolvency” would primarily impact Tier 2 and Tier 3 producers, likely helping to recalibrate the market and address the supply-demand imbalance. While some manufacturers may not go bankrupt, they might repurpose their facilities for other industries.

As polysilicon prices are already on the rise, the expert noted that wafer and cell prices are expected to follow suit.

Tier 1 manufacturers have not reduced their capacity but have limited production outputs since December, in line with a self-discipline agreement from the Chinese government, which anticipates around 650GW of production this year enough to meet global demand estimated between 600W and 700GW.

With an operational module manufacturing capacity of 1.491TW globally, of which 1.188TW is based in China, Hryshko warned that such operational limits could lead to an artificial shortage in module availability.

She pointed out that the new manufacturing guidelines released by the Chinese government are designed to favour larger, more efficient manufacturers.

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The transition away from outdated technologies, such as PERC and low-efficiency TOPCon, is occurring more rapidly than anticipated, with recent announcements focusing on heterojunction and back-contact technologies.

Hryshko forecasts that prices for high-quality Tier 1 solar modules will soon exceed $0.12 per watt, finally aligning with production costs.

She predicts module prices could range between $0.12 and $0.15 per watt by the end of 2025, approaching pre-Covid levels of $0.13 to $0.14 per watt.