La Nina conditions may emerge in the next three months but are anticipated to be relatively weak and short-lived, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its update.

Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest a 55% chance of transitioning from the neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) to La Niña conditions between December 2024 and February 2025. Following this period, a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is favoured from February to April 2025, also with a 55% likelihood.

La Nina is characterised by a significant cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, accompanied by alterations in tropical atmospheric circulation, including winds, pressure, and rainfall. Typically, La Nina leads to climate impacts that are opposite to those produced by El Niño, particularly in tropical areas.

The WMO has highlighted that naturally occurring climate phenomena like La Nina and El Nino are occurring within the larger framework of human-induced climate change, which is driving up global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather events, and altering seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

“The year 2024 began with El Niño and is poised to become the hottest on record. Even if a La Niña event does materialize, its temporary cooling effect will not be enough to offset the warming caused by record levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stated.

Saulo further noted that since May, even without such conditions, there has been an alarming series of extreme weather incidents, including unprecedented rainfall and flooding, which have regrettably become the new norm in our changing climate.