Iraqis head to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new 329-seat parliament, but despite calm on the streets, widespread voter apathy threatens to produce the lowest turnout since 2003.

More than two decades after Saddam Hussein’s fall, many citizens remain disillusioned with a political system they see as corrupt and stagnant.

Experts say voters doubt that elections will bring real change, even as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s government enjoys relative stability.

Surveys show rising trust in state institutions, yet analysts note that armed groups’ dominance, weak reforms, and restrictive electoral laws continue to alienate the public.

Al Sudani’s “Iraq First” agenda has focused on infrastructure, diversification, and the $17 billion Development Road project.

But with nearly 60% of Iraqis under 25, unemployment and corruption remain key frustrations.

Polls suggest Al Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Alliance could win the most seats, followed by the Taqaddum and State of Law coalitions.

Still, experts expect another coalition government with little structural change.

Iraq’s power-sharing system, dividing top posts among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish elites, remains widely criticised for entrenching corruption and limiting competition.

Low turnout, analysts warn, could deepen the legitimacy crisis and fuel new protests.

Beyond domestic discontent, foreign powers are closely watching the vote.

Iran maintains strong influence through allied parties, while the US seeks to counter Tehran’s presence by pressing Baghdad to curb pro-Iran militias.

Analysts say Iraq’s next government will continue its delicate balancing act between Washington and Tehran while struggling to rebuild public confidence in democracy.