The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Independent Evaluation Department (IED) has rated its $15.1 billion Country Assistance Program (CAP) for Pakistan, covering the years 2020-2024, as “highly satisfactory and successful,” despite some shortfalls in key sectors, such as energy and housing.
According to the Country Assistance Program Review (CAPR), the ADB’s portfolio comprised 113 sovereign lending and technical assistance projects, as well as three non-sovereign initiatives valued at $111.4 million.
The overall program, aligned with Pakistan’s Vision 2025 and ADB’s Strategy 2030, aimed to support economic management, enhance resilience, and foster private sector development.
The review praised the program’s performance against the 2021–2025 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) targets, highlighting notable achievements in areas such as tax revenue generation, export growth, climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and social protection.
Projects completed during the review period were largely rated “effective” or “highly effective.”
However, progress was mixed in some critical areas. The ADB-backed reforms in the energy sector succeeded in reducing the annual circular debt flow from Rs450 billion in 2019 to Rs83 billion by the end of 2024.
The CPS target of bringing this figure below Rs50 billion by 2025 remains unlikely. Challenges such as high generation costs due to imported fossil fuels, transmission losses, low collection rates, and governance issues continue to weigh on the sector.
Efforts to boost affordable housing also fell short. The mortgage-to-GDP ratio target of 0.4% was not met, with the figure reaching only 0.3% by 2024, just a 20% improvement over the baseline.
Health and education goals also faced setbacks, primarily due to external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating 2022 floods.
While health expenditure as a share of GDP temporarily increased during the pandemic, it averaged only 1.2%, well below the CPS target of 3%. Similarly, school enrollment objectives now appear out of reach.
Despite these hurdles, the ADB was praised for its strategic response to multiple crises.
It used a tailored mix of financial tools and maintained program relevance and effectiveness amid three changes in government, ongoing macroeconomic instability, the pandemic, and natural disasters.
The CAP earned a “highly satisfactory” rating for efficiency, driven by strong project design, timely execution, and stakeholder engagement.
The program outperformed ADB-wide averages in key areas such as time from project approval to first disbursement (22.4 months) and disbursement rate (125%).
Although a few projects lagged in efficiency due to legislative delays, one in eight lending projects was rated “efficient” or “highly efficient.”
The ADB emphasized that more focused efforts will be needed to overcome structural barriers in energy, health, and education if Pakistan is to meet its long-term development goals.
