A recent US airstrike targeting Iranian nuclear facilities with B-2 bombers has raised alarm among East Asian analysts and policymakers, who fear the action may provoke North Korea to ramp up its nuclear weapons program.
Experts suggest that the swift and targeted attack, which focused on Tehran’s atomic program, may have unintended consequences far beyond the Middle East.
Professor Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University, believes the strike reinforces Pyongyang’s long-held belief that nuclear weapons are the only credible defense against US aggression.
“North Korea perceives this as a preemptive US strike,” said Professor Lim. “It may respond by further accelerating its nuclear missile development.”
He also warned of increased military collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, ties between North Korea and Russia have deepened considerably. Reports indicate North Korea has supplied Russia with more than 14,000 troops, along with millions of rounds of ammunition, rockets, and missiles.
In return, Russia has provided North Korea with advanced military technologies, including air defense systems, electronic warfare tools, and improved missile platforms.This growing partnership not only strengthens North Korea’s nuclear capabilities but also grants it valuable battlefield experience raising the stakes for global security.
Victor Cha, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted two key messages North Korea may draw from the US strike on Iran:
The U.S. is unlikely to use similar military force against a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Possession of nuclear weapons is now seen by Pyongyang as an irreversible and essential safeguard for regime survival.
Analysts also stress a vital distinction between Iran and North Korea. While Iran had enriched uranium to higher levels, it had not yet developed functional nuclear warheads.
In contrast, North Korea is believed to already possess 40 to 50 nuclear warheads and the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) needed to reach the US mainland.
Any military action against North Korea, experts warn, could risk triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict. Moreover, the US South Korea defense treaty requires Washington to consult with Seoul before launching any such action adding legal and political hurdles.
Unlike Iran, North Korea also enjoys a formal defense agreement with Russia, which obligates Moscow to intervene in the event of an attack.
Professor Lim concluded that the strike on Iran might backfire by legitimizing nuclear proliferation rather than curbing it. “North Korea will now trust the US even less,” he said, “and this could lead to even stronger military ties with Russia.”
The situation raises critical questions about the effectiveness of US nuclear policy: Can the threat of force contain proliferation, or does it push adversaries to double down? In North Korea’s case, the danger appears to be growing fueled by the fallout from bombs dropped on Iran.
