As Pakistan and India find themselves at the brink of a nuclear war, a study warns that a nuclear conflict between the two country could inject between 16.1 and 36.6 teragrams of black carbon into the upper atmosphere, depending on the size and yield of the weapons employed. These soot particles would rise into the stratosphere, obstructing sunlight and potentially leading to a “nuclear winter”.
This phenomenon could disrupt weather patterns and agricultural systems worldwide for years, posing a severe threat to global food security and climate stability, according to the studypublished in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on October 2, 2019.
The research, led by Jonas Jägermeyr of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and co-authored by 18 scientists from five countries, explores the worldwide environmental consequences of a hypothetical nuclear exchange in South Asia.
India and Pakistan, which have a long history of geopolitical hostility—having fought four wars since their partition in 1947—each possess over 150 nuclear warheads. Their most contentious issue remains the disputed Kashmir region, a flashpoint that continues to fuel tensions.
The PNAS study warns that even a limited regional conflict involving the detonation of approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs could have far-reaching global effects. Agricultural yields for major crops such as maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans could decline by an average of 11% globally, with some nations experiencing losses exceeding 20%. The Northern Hemisphere’s breadbasket regions—including North America, Europe, Russia, and China—would be hardest hit.
According to Jägermeyr and coauthors, “Even this regional, limited war would have devastating indirect implications worldwide.” The fallout would be particularly dire for countries in the Global South, many of which already rely heavily on food imports and are ill-equipped to handle such shortages.
The study’s authors also caution that while the model assumes the use of Hiroshima-sized bombs, future advancements in nuclear arsenals could involve more powerful warheads, amplifying the climatic effects even further. The black carbon produced could linger in the stratosphere for up to a decade, prolonging the environmental disruption.
Deputy Director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, Frank O’Donnell, commented on the implications of the findings, highlighting that “the persistent territorial dispute over Kashmir exacerbates the nuclear threat, making a conflict between India and Pakistan an ongoing risk.”
The research underscores the urgent need for international diplomacy and nuclear disarmament, particularly in volatile regions. It also serves as a stark reminder that nuclear warfare poses not only immediate humanitarian disasters but also long-term global threats to climate stability and food security.
India blamed Pakistan for the April attack that killed 26. Pakistan denies responsibility and called for a neutral probe.
After the attack, India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty that regulates water-sharing from the Indus River and its tributaries, and Pakistan closed airspace to Indian airlines.
Allegations have also resurfaced that India orchestrates false flag operations especially around the visits of foreign dignitaries to divert international attention from the deteriorating security situation in occupied Kashmir.
