The growth of the Catholic Church serves as a key indicator for selecting the next pope.The new leader can come from Africa, where the Catholic population is expanding faster than anywhere else, contributing to more than half of the global increase.
While three popes have hailed from Africa historically, the last, Pope Gelasius I, died over 1,500 years ago, prompting calls for a new African leader.
As the cardinal-electors gather at the Vatican to choose Pope Francis’ successor, the influence of this demographic shift on their decision is yet to be determined.
“I think it would be great to have an African pope,” remarked Father Stan ChuIlo, a Nigerian priest and professor at DePaul University.
He believes that the Church’s leadership should reflect its diverse global congregation, though he acknowledged that cardinals may prefer to choose someone with an established profile rather than an emerging leader.
Currently, there are no senior African clergy holding significant positions in the Vatican, complicating the prospects for an African pope. Unlike 2013, when Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson was a strong candidate, there are no recognized African figures currently influential in global Catholicism.
Despite Pope Francis increasing the proportion of cardinals from sub-Saharan Africa from 8% in 2013 to 12% today, the absence of prominent African clergy continues to surprise many. Father Chu Ilo commented on the discrepancy between the Church’s growth in Africa and its leadership representation.
Africa now constitutes 20% of the global Catholic population, with numbers rising from 272 million in 2022 to 281 million in 2023. However, some African Catholics, including Father Paulinus Ikechukwu Odozor of Notre Dame University, view the focus on geographical origin as tokenism.
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He argues that the pope’s role transcends regional identity and must prioritize the collective issues of the Church.
Odozor emphasizes that the next pope must be a knowledgeable theologian capable of navigating tradition while addressing the needs of the faithful worldwide.
He expressed concerns that African issues are frequently marginalized within the Vatican.
Pope Francis has been praised for his empathy towards the poor and marginalized, which has endeared him to many in Africa. His advocacy against resource exploitation and his peace efforts in conflict zones like the Central African Republic have garnered respect.
However, he faced backlash from African bishops over his stance on LGBTQ issues, particularly following a 2023 declaration permitting blessings for same-sex couples.
Potential African candidates for the papacy include Turkson, Robert Sarah from Guinea, and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo, all of whom hold traditional views on LGBTQ matters.
Despite an increasing number of African cardinals, both Odozor and Chu Ilo pointed out the ongoing issue of racism within the Church, which could hinder the acceptance of an African pope.
With Pope Francis appointing the majority of cardinals eligible to vote in the upcoming conclave, there is hope for a leader who emphasizes outreach to the poor and marginalized. Chu Ilo referred to this as a “poor-first” approach, stressing the need for a listening Church.
As the conclave approaches, the outcome remains uncertain. “I would pray that God will give us a pope who will continue with the outlook of Francis, and I hope such a person comes from Africa,” Chu Ilo concluded.
